High Ranked Recruiting Classes = Success...Right?

            We can all agree that recruiting is a good measuring stick for where your program will be the next few years.  Let’s take a look at what the last few classes have done for their schools, and what may have caused these classes to exceed or fail expectations.

            The most obvious place to start is with Alabama as they have rolled off 3 of the last 4 BCS/National Titles.  To make a good measurement of what recruiting had to do with this rise to the top of football we have to go all the way back to 2006 where Bama finished with the #11 class with two 5* players.  However, one player would never qualify Mike Ford(How did he qualify at USF), and the other would start the domino effect that gave Utah a Sugar Bowl victory over the Tide in 2008.  The reason I bring this class up is two fold.  The first is to show what a miss in recruiting can do.  The second is to show that just because a player isn’t highly ranked doesn’t mean they can’t win.  This class landed five 3* players that would be key players in Bama’s title in 2009. 
Woodall, Arenas, McElroy, Dial, and Quis Johnson.  2007’s had zero 5*s but the program developed some 3* and 4*s into leaders, title winners, and NFL talent.  Chapman 3*, Jackson 4*, Maze 3*, and McClain.

            Enter Nick Saban in 2008.  The #1 overall class by Rivals, three 5*s and nineteen 4*s.  What could, at this date, be regarded as the most talented and decorated recruiting class in history.  Also what many consider the turning pint in Bama’s rise to the top.  All of these players would win at least one title and a few would win 3.  Five of these players would be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

            Alabama has continued this run in recruiting.  So for Alabama recruiting has been a perfect measurement for future success.  They have finished with the #1 class five of the last six years with 2010 finishing #5.  So I would look for the Tide to stay on top for at least a few more years.  But does this mean all you have to do is recruit?  I don’t think so.  Player Development (article to come) along with team chemistry are what polishes these players into winning teams.

            Lets take a look at a few classes that have not been an accurate measurement for success(I am not going to talk about Auburn so my friends for the other side of the state won’t get mad and maybe keep reading).  Texas is an easy and popular school to make a good comparison to Alabama.  With possibly the largest and most talented basis of athletes in its home state (Florida is close), Texas has always seemed to be at the pinnacle of talent.  They also have a historic program with a big name coach in Mack Brown.

            Coming off a National Title in 2005 (led by #1 recruit Vince Young), Texas was on pace and in position to make a big run on talented recruits.  In fact they landed six top 5 recruiting classes over the next 7 years.  They never landed the #1 class or player but did land a large number of top 50 or 100 players.  In those 7 years they landed twelve 5*s and one hundred fifty 3* or 4* players.  This would give them an average of the second or third class for 7 straight years.  This would seem to put them in the top of BCS talks year after year.

            The recruiting benchmark seemed to hold true for the 2008 and 2009 seasons.  Texas went 12-1 and 13-1 respectively and lost only 2 games those years.  One of those defeats was in the BCS Championship game to Alabama in 2009.  But what happened from 2009 to 2013.  Texas took a big slide starting 2010, knocking it out of the Top 325 in several polls for the first time since 1997 and would not return until 2013 where it finished around 20^th.

            What caused this fall?  Everyone has their opinions but it does prove that recruiting rankings are not the only way to project a programs future success.

            Lets take a look at a few classes that were at best mediocre, but took their teams to a new height in the football world.  Oregon has made a quick and steady move to the elite in College Football Programs.  Going back to the 2006 recruiting class (as we did for the above programs), Oregon did not have a top 10 class until 2011 with only 2 classes in the top 20 from 2006 thru 2011.

            How successful were these classes for Oregon?  How about going form a 5 year combined record of 49 – 23 from 2003 – 2007 to a 56 – 10 record the last five years!  They either won or tied for first in the PAC 10/12 all five of these years.  They played in a BCS bowl 4 out of the last 5 seasons with a loss in the title game in 2010.

            Now that we have proved that Oregon has had success with average recruiting rankings let's list some of the players that made up these classes and how they developed.  Let's start with the controversial LeGarrette Blount, infamous for his upper cut to Boise State player Byron Hout after the game.  Even though Hout obviously was asking for it, Blount was suspended for a season but eventually found himself in the NFL.  Blount was a 4* recruit who found himself in the top 5 running backs bound for the NFL before his upper cut incident.  LaMichael James also was a 4* recruit who turned into a college super star running back and found himself as the #2 option for the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl this year.  Clay Mathews, Green Bay linebacker, was a undersized 3* recruit who developed into a second round NFL star.  David Paulson and TJ Ward are also examples of 3* recruits who developed into big time college and NFL talents.

            Now that we have muddied the water as far as what a recruiting class means to the future of a program, let’s discuss why they exceed or fail expectations.  The factors around this failure or success have been debated for as long as sports have been organized.  Player Development is one of these major factors.  This includes skill, character, mental, and physical developments.  While these factors turn raw recruits into quality players it also takes Team development to create a good program.  Discipline, devotion to team concepts, work ethic and dedication to your job are all a part of building a Team.  These factors not only apply to the players but to the Coaches, Staff and Program as a whole.

            So if it is so easily defined what makes a good recruiting class a good program why isn’t everyone successful?  I am hoping that all you readers will let me know.  When I was the coach at Alabama I obviously didn’t follow the path I describe above.  Yes I had a 10 win season but I never fully developed my talent.  That’s why I’m in the NFL now!

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